Socio-energetic stamina in photovoltaics: material security and …

Energy transitions face a materials paradox because solar resources are widely distributed, but photovoltaic systems require supply chains that operate from specific geographic locations and rely on certain thin-film technologies that use rare byproduct metals. The study investigates kesterite photovoltaics (Cu2ZnSn(S,Se)4; CZTSSe) as an energy solution for locations facing energy insecurity that require policies that go beyond cost-effective electricity to include supply security, manufacturing access, and dependable service delivery. We develop a multi-criteria assessment combining (i) indicators of mineral scarcity and refining concentration, (ii) benchmarked manufacturing capital intensity with scale adjustment, and (iii) scenario-based techno-economic analysis that incorporates grid unreliability through avoided outage costs (VoLL). Refining concentration for indium and gallium is extreme (HHI > 6,000), whereas key CZTSSe constituents exhibit substantially lower concentration. A 30 TW deployment stress test indicates that large-scale CIGS expansion faces severe indium constraints even under optimistic recycling, while for CZTSSe, the binding concern shifts toward tin reserve definitions, reserve growth, and end-of-life recovery for bulk metals. We introduce socio-energetic stamina as a development-relevant lens for comparing PV options by material security, manufacturability, and operational resilience, clarifying where efficiency-first evaluation can misrank technologies when reliability and import dependence shape real-world energy access outcomes.