1. From protest to power
For the first time in decades, the Iranian people have risen in widespread protests with a clear political objective: to end 47 years of oppressive rule under the current regime and replace it with a system that respects freedom, justice, and economic opportunity. Led in part by calls from Reza Pahlavi, large segments of the population have taken to the streets demanding regime change, not mere reform, driven by frustration with chronic corruption, repression, and economic mismanagement.
These protests, larger and more sustained than many in recent memory, reflect a deep and historic rejection of the existing establishment. U.S. political figures, including President Donald Trump, have publicly warned the Iranian regime against violently suppressing demonstrators and expressed support for the Iranian people’s aspirations, suggesting that brutal reprisals “will not go unchallenged” and signaling potential consequences for mass repression [1]. Considering the scale of the protests and global support for the demonstrators, the regime’s collapse in the near future is widely anticipated.
During these 47 years, the regime’s governance has coincided with a severe degradation of Iran’s energy infrastructure. Despite possessing the world’s third-largest proved oil reserves and second-largest natural gas reserves, Iran suffers from outdated facilities, frequent power outages, and limited investment in modern energy systems. Under the current regime, hydrogen production remains largely incidental and tied to traditional refinery processes—producing comparatively small amounts of hydrogen primarily for internal industrial use via fossil fuel reforming—rather than through dedicated low-carbon production methods. Indeed, Iran currently lacks commercial blue or green hydrogen facilities, and its renewable energy capacity, essential for green hydrogen, is underdeveloped compared to regional peers [2].
2. Iran’s Natural gas–based hydrogen production
Yet the potential for Iran to become a global hydrogen hub is enormous. Natural gas–based hydrogen production presents an important transitional opportunity for Iran, given its vast natural gas reserves—the second-largest in the world, with an estimated 1,200 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), representing roughly 16% of global proved reserves [3]. Currently, however, Iran’s hydrogen production is largely tied to gray hydrogen processes that reform hydrocarbons without capturing carbon emissions, and there are no commercial blue hydrogen facilities (which pair reforming with carbon capture and storage) operational in the country. Iranian oil refineries already produce hydrogen (around 300 million cubic feet per day, around 700 tons daily) primarily for internal industrial use, such as hydrocracking in fuel production. The cost of this hydrogen, based on current natural gas prices in Iran, is approximately $400 per ton, reflecting its dependence on fossil feedstocks and the inefficiencies that result from the absence of carbon capture [4].
Nevertheless, Iran’s abundant gas resources and existing hydrocarbon infrastructure could be leveraged for blue hydrogen production, a strategy being pursued by neighboring producers who combine steam methane reforming (SMR) with carbon capture technologies to reduce emissions [5]. With political change and investment, transitioning from gray to blue hydrogen could serve as an intermediate step toward large-scale low-carbon hydrogen exports, offering a realistic pathway for Iran to enter global hydrogen markets as its renewable sector matures.
A free Iran offers international investors a unique opportunity to lead large-scale hydrogen production projects, tapping vast resources and strategic markets.
3. Renewable hydrogen production capabilities in Iran
Situated within the world’s sun belt, Iran benefits from exceptional solar irradiation, with studies projecting that much of the country receives over 4.8–5.5 kWh/kWp/day—levels that could support highly competitive green hydrogen production via solar-driven electrolysis at costs potentially below $3 per kg by 2030, rivaling planned projects in Saudi Arabia, Australia, and Chile. Iran also has thousands of kilometers of southern coastline that is ideal for integrating large-scale renewable energy production with seawater desalination and hydrogen generation, as well as export infrastructure, enabling the efficient delivery of hydrogen derivatives such as ammonia and methanol to global markets [4].
In addition to solar, Iran possesses significant wind energy potential, with wind resources estimated to exceed 20,000 MW in key regions—providing a robust complement to solar for renewable electricity and hydrogen production [6]. Current renewable capacity, including solar, wind, small hydropower, and biomass, continues to expand, though it still constitutes a small share of overall energy generation, underscoring the vast untapped opportunity.
4. Iran vs. Persian Gulf states in the hydrogen market
The Middle East is emerging as a major player in the global hydrogen economy, led by ambitious strategies in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Oman. These countries have established clear national hydrogen roadmaps, backed by large-scale investment, regulatory frameworks, and export-oriented infrastructure. Saudi Arabia’s flagship NEOM Green Hydrogen Project alone is designed to produce around 600 tons of green hydrogen per day by the mid-2020s, positioning the Kingdom as a leading exporter of green ammonia. The UAE has adopted a national hydrogen strategy targeting 1.4 million tons of low-carbon hydrogen by 2031, rising sharply toward mid-century, while Oman aims to produce 1 million tons annually by 2030 through dedicated hydrogen zones linked to global markets [7].
In contrast, Iran currently lacks a comprehensive hydrogen strategy and has no commercial green or blue hydrogen facilities, despite holding the world’s second-largest natural gas reserves and possessing exceptional solar and wind potential. Sanctions, limited access to technology, and regulatory barriers have delayed development, leaving Iran behind its Persian Gulf neighbors. However, with political change, foreign investment, and international cooperation, Iran could rapidly close this gap—leveraging its scale of resources and strategic location to compete with, or even surpass, existing regional hydrogen leaders.
5. Strategic investment for a global hydrogen hub in Iran
Becoming a global hydrogen hub requires massive scaling of both blue and green hydrogen capacity, backed by substantial investment and infrastructure development. Globally, over 1,500 hydrogen projects have been announced with combined investments exceeding $680 billion by 2030, and about 4.6 million tons per year of clean hydrogen capacity has already reached final investment decisions—highlighting the large pipeline of future projects [8].
By 2050, hydrogen production is expected to be dominated by green hydrogen, potentially accounting for 50–65 % of global supply, alongside significant contributions from blue hydrogen in regions with competitive natural gas and carbon capture capabilities [9]. The blue hydrogen market alone is projected to grow from roughly $2.2 billion in 2024 to nearly $7 billion by 2034, with the Middle East playing a growing role [10].
To compete at this scale, a country must deploy large‑scale renewable energy and carbon-capture infrastructure, support electrolyzer manufacturing, and develop export logistics, such as pipelines and shipping terminals. With the global green hydrogen market forecast to expand into tens of millions of tons annually by 2030, and its value rising into the hundreds of billions by 2035, Iran’s abundant solar, wind, and natural gas resources give it the theoretical capacity to become a major hub—provided strategic investment, policy support, and international partnerships are mobilized.
A free Iran with open economic ties could offer compelling opportunities for U.S. and international investment in energy, particularly in hydrogen, natural gas, and renewables. Iran’s abundant solar and wind potential—supported by over 300 sunny days per year and large wind corridors—could attract capital and technology partnerships to develop green hydrogen, solar farms, wind projects, and modernized natural gas infrastructure at scale. With supportive policies and incentives, foreign firms and investors could help build out energy infrastructure, enhance gas-to-hydrogen production, create jobs, and export low-carbon fuels, tapping a market that currently has vast natural resources but underdeveloped energy capacity.
6. Conclusion
Under a free Iran, with an accountable government and openness to foreign investment and technology transfer, these renewable resources could be harnessed rapidly. A reformed political landscape would facilitate the establishment of regulatory frameworks, attract capital, and promote partnerships necessary for scaling green and blue hydrogen production. Developed countries, especially the U.S. and its allies, would find a uniquely advantageous partner in a free Iran ready to contribute to the global energy transition—creating jobs, improving regional energy security, and supplying low-carbon fuels critical to reaching climate targets. The result could be nothing less than the emergence of Iran as the world’s largest hydrogen hub, transforming its energy sector from one of repression and decline into a cornerstone of the clean, interconnected global energy economy.
References
[1] https://nypost.com/2026/01/10/world-news/trump-reposts-lindsey-grahams-tweet-warning-iran/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
[2] https://apctt.org/sites/default/files/2024-11/Hydrogen%20-Iran.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com
[3] https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/countries_long/iran/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
[4] https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202512.2819?utm_source=chatgpt.com
[5] https://apctt.org/sites/default/files/2024-11/Dr.Bassiri.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com
[6] https://iran.un.org/en/281268-enhancing-role-renewable-energy-national-energy-supply-iran?utm_source=chatgpt.com
[7] https://www.oneroinstitute.org/content/the-rise-of-the-gulfs-hydrogen-economy?utm_source=chatgpt.com
[8] https://efifoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2024/10/A-Global-Hydrogen-Future.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com
[9] https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/oil-and-gas/our-insights/global-energy-perspective-2023-hydrogen-outlook?utm_source=chatgpt.com
[10] https://www.globalgrowthinsights.com/market-reports/blue-hydrogen-market-120842?utm_source=chatgpt.com
Editor: Ehsan Hosseini
Professor of Mechanical Engineering at Arkansas Tech University
