Toward a 100% renewable energy future in Iceland: scenario analysis of geothermal, biofuel, and electric vehicle integration

This study investigates the transition paths towards a 100% renewable energy system in Iceland through scenario analysis and simulation using the Energy PLAN software. Because of its unique geographical location and abundant geothermal resources, Iceland is a case study for renewable energy. In the present research, three primary scenarios are considered. The EV scenario is the substitution of fossil-fuel vehicles with EVs, which would imply that the proportion of renewable energy rises to 91.2% and CO₂ emission falls from 1.98 million tons in 2022 to 1.27 million tons by 2035. The Hybrid scenario, beyond the expansion of EVs, also includes the use of biofuels in industrial and maritime sectors, leading to an increase in the share of renewable energy to 96.6% and reducing CO₂ emissions down to 0.49 million tons. In contrast, the Business as Usual (BAU) scenario keeps the current system without structural changes, resulting in only a marginal increase in renewable energy share and an escalation of CO₂ emissions to 2.58 million tons. Alongside technical and environmental analysis, this study assesses the economic, social, and political aspects of the transition to a sustainable energy system. It highlights the importance of supportive policies, stronger regulations, and greater public awareness as key factors for success. Overall, the comprehensive insights provided by this research offer valuable guidance for policymakers and stakeholders aiming to reduce reliance on fossil fuels and enhance Iceland’s environmental performance.